I love this time of year. The temperatures are nice (although it’s raining here in So Cal today and for the next couple of days), it’s good to get together with friends and family, and like most folks fortunate who live in the US, I have a lot for which I am thankful.
Earlier this week, I picked up a screw in one of my Subie’s tires, so it was off to America’s Tire, where they fix these things for free. The idea is that you’ll think of them first when it’s time for new tires, and in my case, you can bet that’s going to happen. It was a 2-hour wait, and I used that time to go for a walk. Our local Harley dealer is just up the street from the tire place, I hadn’t been in a Harley showroom in a while, so I stopped by to check things out.
Things have changed from when I rode a Harley. In those days, any Harley dealership was a hopping place. When I walked over to the dealer this week, the place was mostly empty, they didn’t have a ton of T-shirts, and there were plenty of motorcycles. It’s a world gone mad, I tell you.
I haven’t kept up with the latest from Harley, other than the headline-grabbing stuff about the Livewire. I guess they had a hiccup with the initial rollout, but that sort of thing happens and I hear it’s been fixed. What hasn’t been fixed is the Milwaukee notion that any Harley is worth $30K, and I think that’s one of the major reasons the bar-and-shield folks’ best days are in the rear-view mirror. I haven’t heard that Livewires are flying out of the showrooms, and judging by the looks of the dealer I visited, neither is anything else. It’s not just me saying this…the stock market shows a Harley trend that is downright scary. Harley has ridden their rebel reputation big time since the early 1990s, but one place you don’t want to buck the trend is in the stock market.
The Harley sales guy was eager to help, so I asked him about the Bronx 975 (Gresh did a piece on it not too long ago). My guy never heard of the Bronx, so I asked if they had any Sportsters (there was one, so maybe they are selling better). I then asked about Harley’s Street models (the 500 and 750 V-twins), and he told me there were none. “They didn’t sell too well,” he said. I thought that was unfortunate. I’m conceited enough to think that if Gresh and I had ridden those bikes in Baja, if Harley offered guided Baja tours to Street buyers, and if Harley had an effective blog, that bike could have been a winner. We sure sold a lot of motorcycles at CSC with those Baja tours (including to folks who didn’t ride with us in Baja). It was just the idea that they could (that, of course, and the CSC motorcycles’ price). Good buddy Dan is adventure touring in Tunisia right now along with a bunch of other Guzzistas on a ride organized by Moto Guzzi. I think that’s brilliant (and I’m jealous). Tunisia! Damn, that’s exotic!
I don’t think there’s much of a future in two-wheeled, 900-pound, 114-cubic-inch dinosaurs, but hey, what do I know? That’s a rhetorical question…I think my lack of knowledge is right up there with the industry wizards who continue to ponder the “what can we do about the sad state of the motorcycle industry” question, and then continue to offer 114-cubic-inch, $30,000 motorcycles that sit for presumably extended periods on showroom floors. And like I said earlier, I don’t think ebikes are the answer.
So, what do you think? Let us know with a comment or two. We love hearing from you. And I think the folks in Milwaukee would, too. They read these pages, I think, judging by what I’m seeing on Google Analytics. Let us know.
I still read the mags and cruise the local dealers, but just can’t see anything that justifies parking my Tiger 1050 and assuming 48 months of payments. An Indian Scout with touring accessories and beautiful paint is as close as I’ve gotten….
Maybe that’s the answer, or at least the underlying root cause: Nothing is as good as what was available a few years ago. I guess I concur. So how do you sell more new motorcycles?
That is a very pretty bike, 30K is insane…
I agree on both counts. On the other hand, a full dress Harley has always retailed for about the price of an economy car, ever since I started drooling over motorcycles. And Johnson was in the White House when that started.
Harley is in the same type of spot that Cadillac was about 25-30 years ago. Their high brand value customer is ageing out and they have to appeal to a new generation of buyers. Cadillac did it successfully but I’m real unsure about Harley. They seem a bit lost. I attended the IMS show in Long Beach and looked at the new models and there was nothing there that would make me want to fill out a credit app, and the new Bronx and the adventure bike really didn’t do it for me at all. They seem to be more expensive, less capable bikes in a market that is flooded with similar machines that do it better and cheaper. If a bike is going to sell it has to have an appeal on the showroom floor that just screams “hey, get on – lets go ride” and the current line up doesn’t quite do that. I’m a Harley guy; I have 4 of them and have lusted after them since I was a kid living down the street from Harley Davidson of Inglewood way back when. I do hope like hell they find the right formula but it looks like its tectonic shift time and the generation of guys like me is being moved away from in favor of the new. But I think they are barking up the wrong tree and might be better advised to refine and modernize the traditional air cooled v-twin line because that is what makes a Harley a Harley and is its unique appeal. If they lose that and have to compete on merit alone, I think they may be in trouble.
If Harley could make a bike something like the 1972 500cc Triumph Daytona (the baby Bonneville), and charge a reasonable price for it, and prevent dealer gouging (or better yet, bypass the dealers altogether, like CSC does)…that would be a good thing. Yeah, there are obstacles, but obstacles can be overcome. It just seems so obvious.
Joe, next time you are up here in Northern Nevada we’ll drive past the office of Harley-Davidson Financial Services, in Carson City. It’s a pretty big building, with a large parking lot for employees.
It’s where Harley manages the loans it sells to people who buy its motorcycles.
Every time I go past it I think about the economics and the business model of selling Harley-Davidson motorcycles. And I think it is one reason why Harley continues to push machines that cost $30K or more, and doesn’t quite know how to sell bikes that cost less.
I suspect that Harley, like a lot of other consumer-goods manufacturers, makes a huge portion of its money selling loans. Think about the revenue from a $30K loan for five years or more compared to a loan for about $10K that a buyer could probably pay off in three years.
The average Harley buyer doesn’t rack up a lot of miles, keeps his bike in the garage, and spends a bunch of money on chrome and loud pipes. So when he finally pays off that loan, Harley can entice him to buy a new bike, in a new color, with a newer stereo, for another $30-plus K. And sell another five-year loan.
The guy will trade in his barely-used machine in excellent condition at a huge depreciation on what he paid for it. The dealer will spend a couple of hours detailing the motorcycle and be able to make a fat profit when he sells it.
That whole equation shrinks substantially if the motorcycles cost 60 percent less.
I think we all understand what they are doing, J. It fits the classic definition of insanity: Doing the same thing and hoping for a different result. The average Harley owner fits the description you provided, and he’ll be off bikes in the next few years. They’re trying new things with the ADV camel they’re bringing to market and the Bronx, and the ebikes. Maybe. But I think not. Time to go have a Yoo Hoo. I need to get started on that review.
Happy Thanksgiving Joe !!
Back at you, Gonzo! Enjoy the day!
Harleys have always been 75%
Costume (life style) and 25 % Motorcycle!
I’m thinking the costume is out of style and the competition is creating lots of alternative diversions for thrills (not motorsports in some cases)!
The market is dying and leaving, the thrill is gone for youth, Motorcycle riding is going out of style!
We need to find a way to bring biking back. For the lefties, we can start a rumor that our President hates bikes, and they’ll buy them in droves. For the right, well, you can guess where this is going.
Happy Thanksgiving to all! I have thought about this problem that Harley has for a long time. I believe the Oldsmobile analogy is much more filling to the Harley situation. I remember when they had Ringo Starr on TV commercials telling people this is NOT your father’s Oldsmobile! Of course Ringo Starr was an old guy even then and the younger people just looked at this old guy and said what the…. if the Harley name has some cachet , and it does, then perhaps a halo effect on some really high performing Street models would work. Big torque and able to easily Cruise around town and short trips and ride that torc curved all around . And of course they do need to be reasonably priced! If you’re going to get the young people in the motorcycle you’re going to have to price them so that young people can afford the dang things.
Agree on all counts, Terry.
Joe. I hope someone at the motor company is reading this and actually thinks about what your saying. Other than Willy G, I doubt if any one at the motor company has both your motor cycle experience and engineering background.
We’ll see, Tom. I don’t claim to be the sharpest knife in the drawer. But to keep offering bigger, heavier, and more expensive motorcycles…you’d think someone would realize that ain’t the future.
Couple of the guys I ride with (we don’t ride Harleys) have kids who have bought Harleys. They went after the skinny tall rear tire, rides high in back, goofy tall bars that shoot straight up out of the top triple tree with 90 degree angles to the grips. I see this style of Harley splitting lanes on the bridges here in Norcal, younger dudes usually wearing hoodie sweatshirts or neon orange/yellow Jerseys or reflective vests, most likely blue collar guys building the high-tech high rises for Facebook, et al. I see this style Harley parked in downtown Livermore CA in groups, and dudes that ride them are no older than 35. Seems that “youth” have found the style of Harley they want, but, they can’t go to Harley to buy them! They must rely on the aftermarket to craft this style. Great for the aftermarket, but since there isn’t a new offering, I assume these guys are buying used and then hitting the aftermarket. Maybe Harley just needs to open their eyes and pay attention to what their populace is actually riding that are not Boomers or Gen X.
Thanks Evan. They did it with the Low Rider and Superglide back in the 1970s.
There is a small-ish, dedicated group of younger kids doing things with motorcycles.
I see them doing cool stuff on the motorized-bicycle pages and destroying classic ‘70s era Japanese bikes. A lot of MC newcomer’s first motorcycle experience is with Chinese products. I’m not sure how that will work out.
We have new riders but not like the Boomer years. Is there enough of them to support a corporation like H-D?
And another thing… ordering online is normal for most people. I do it for almost everything. Buyers are used to calling customer support instead of taking things back to a dealer. The big, Moto-mahal lifestyle centers are relics of a faded ownership path.
Presumably Harley is doing market research and offering what the market demands. It is puzzling though, since Hispanics will be the majority ethnicity soon in theUSA, why HD doesn’t start making smaller bikes as that’s what they seem to prefer south of the border.
I hope you all had a happy thanksgiving and your toilets held up.
On the Harley future,,, I don’t think they are doomed. They have been around through much tougher situations so I think they will survive.
What I see happening is there will be a downsizing of sorts. Like they were before the big Harley/motorcycle boom.
I see the boutique dealers going away. The walls of high dollar leathers, chrome gagas and trinkets dwindling down to the bare essentials. The T-shirts will still be there. We gotta have our t-shirts. The floors will have a couple of each models instead of 8 different colors of the same bike. You want a different color,, you order it. Or paint the one you bought (love the one your with).
Less models in the lineup all together (where’s the Dyna?)
I see Harley’s being bought by motorcyclist/bikers. Folks that are going to keep the bike for more than five years. Not fadders
The dressers will still be good sellers. We are a big country. We need/want big bikes to cross this country with. And we want bikes with creature comforts. I don’t know if I could ever cross Kansas without a radio again after doing it with tunes. I can only sing “I Walk the Line” so many times before I’m sick of my own voice.
There will be less sales and hopefully lower prices. The MOCO will just have to get lean again. I wonder how much the museum is costing the company? I’ve been there. I didn’t see enough people there to pay the bill for that place.
I hope to see the high priced execs will see the profits dwindling and move on to other companies like Johnson & Johnson and such that will pay them the their high salary’s that they command and Harley can get real motorcyclist running the company again. Not just some bean counters.
At least that is what I’m hoping to see. It would not bother me one bit to go into a Harley dealership again and see the owner with a wrench in his hand. Instead of a mouse.
Not sure I can add anything other than my own experience. The guys I ride with, mostly Patriot Guard Riders, ride. They’re not garage to bar to garage guys, they RIDE and I respect and admire them for it. They like the dressers and trade every few years. They also do a good bit of custom work on them. I can’t say that their demographic can keep HD in business, but the hundreds that I know are faithful.
That being said, Goldwings are also popular (but not as numerous).
You guys mostly opine from the standpoint of motorcycle guys. Harley guys are Harley guys and price doesn’t matter.
I have to say, the rumble of a big V-Twin under you makes the highway alluring.