A few weeks ago I read a Wall Street Journal opinion piece by Peter Funt (of the Candid Camera show). His article was on the pandemic lockdowns and isolation inducing more folks to publish their memoirs, and Funt made the case that this was not such a good thing. Most memoirs are God-awful boring.
That got me to thinking about the adventure touring genre. You know, the books, blogs, videos, and endless Facebook posts and forums about adventure rides.
Adventure rides.
We used to call a motorcycle ride a motorcycle ride. Now they are all “adventure” rides. And we don’t tell a story or do a bike test. Now, it’s a reveal. Harley is going to introduce a new bike in few days. But it’s not a new model announcement. It’s a “reveal.”
Ten to twenty years ago, the place to go to read good riding stories was ADVRider.com and their Rides page (back then, the stories and photography were actually good) and HorizonsUnlimited.com. Now it’s mostly videos, Facebook, and blogs. There’s too much of this (and I say that as guy who writes a blog). I seldom view any of it. Which is not to say you should stop reading ExNotes. We’re different, you know. We’ve never had a “reveal” (other than that one unfortunate wardrobe accident in China) and we never will.
All of the above begs the question: How much milk is left in the adventure riding cow?
Fads come in waves, and a surefire way to know that a wave is dissipating on shore is when a big company tries to surf in on the little bit of surf that’s left. Witness the Pan America, Harley’s too much, too late entry into the ADV world. Harley wants to compete with the BMW GS, KTM, and Ducati high end ADV bikes.
It’s hard for me to see how Harley is going to prevail. For starters, my feeling is that most folks who ride big V-twin cruisers (folks who form the bulk of Harley’s current customer base) have little interest in adventure touring. The premise is that Harley will attract a new crop of customers, presumably drawing the sheeple who would have bought BMWs, or KTMs, or Ducatis. Color me skeptical, but I just don’t see it happening.
No, what’s happening is a sea change, not an opportunity to do a little surfing in a dying market. The world moves in fads, with each fad having about a ten-to-twenty-year life, and we’re due for a new one. I just don’t know what it is. Consider this:
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- In the 1960s, it was British vertical twins. Those were cool years and the Triumphs, BSAs, Nortons, and Enfields of the day were cool bikes.
- In the 1970s and the 1980s, it was Japanese machines (the so-called UJMs). Honda’s 750 Four had five gears, and that fifth one was for the paradigm shift that swallowed the British empire and made us wonder if maybe Japan won World War II after all. Four cylinders across the frame, with differences between manufacturers that could only be described as trivial. The UJMs were kind of cool, too, but not as cool as the Britbikes (at least to my way of thinking). But the Britbikes were toast, destined to emerge two decades down the road as the darlings of a small but well published vintage motorcycle market niche (and in case you missed it, that was a plug for Motorcycle Classics magazine).
- In the 1990s, it was Harleys and all that went with it. You know, middle aged guys becoming pirates and bikes festooned with chrome, leather fringe, and conchos. I was one of them for awhile and I had everything but the tattoos. Bikes that people with more money than brains bought (often paying over MSRP) so they could don do-rags, denim, and non-DOT helmets, and look pretty much exactly like all the other beer-bellied rugged individualists. I was one of them for a while, too.
- Sportbikes had a good run somewhere in the middle of all this, too, with ergonomics that guaranteed significant incomes for chiropractors and physical therapists, who frequently used that money to pay well over list price for a Harley (see above). Guilty again. You got me. I had a TL1000S, a Triumph Daytona, and a Speed Triple.
- With the turn of the century, the trend migrated toward 650-pound, liter-plus bikes styled like dirt bikes and equipped with electronics rivaling Air Force One. Denim and do-rags were replaced by Power Ranger clothing. Everybody wanted to be Charlie and Ewen, but few could afford the chase trucks and mechanics, and even fewer could handle one of the bloated beasts off road. Most adorned driveways and Starbuck’s parking lots. I mean, the headlight lenses on some of these things cost $1800; no way anyone was taking those wunderbikes into the woods. I’m sort of guilty here. I had a Triumph Tiger. I took it off road just once and it was terrifying.
I think we are fast approaching the last throes of the overweight off-road $25K-to-$30K wannabee adventure bikes and their thousand-dollar Aerostitch-wearing riders…you know, the guys who stand on the pegs even when riding on level asphalt. (Sit down, guys…your “sell by” date flew by years ago and I’ll say what everyone else is thinking: You look silly.)
So what’s next?
Electric motorcycles? Nope, I don’t think that’s going to happen in any major way. Alta is gone, Zero is struggling, and the Livewire may have already suffered electrocution as a consequence of Harley’s rewiring. Electric bikes don’t sound like motorcycles, the range is not there (it’s not going to be any time soon), and I think a motorcycle without an internal combustion engine really isn’t a motorcycle at all. So what will be the next big moto thing?
Self-driving motorcycles? Nope. Dead on arrival, I think.
Even more “mode complexity” on street bikes? Probably not. That sort of thing appeals to juvenile minds (ones susceptible to Jedi mind tricks). I think even the easily-led characters mentioned above recognize this as too gimmicky. I once had a pimply faced kid ask me at one of the IMS shows how many modes our imported-from-China 250cc ADV bike had, and I told him: Two. On, and off. He nodded knowingly, as if I had let him in on a great secret, and wandered off toward the Ducati booth.
I think the ADV thing is going to dry up, even though we are still seeing sales upticks in the motorcycle market. Sort of. ADV-style bike trends have been up, but it always was a relatively small market segment and the current increase (most likely the result of the “more free stuff” crowd rocking Washington these days) appears to be big but actually is not. Dirt bike sales are up, but that’s for off road dirt bikes only. Street bike sales are down about 10%. And that thing about motorcycle sales overall going up? Yeah, it is, but it’s mostly ATVs (of the 4-wheel persuasion, which are included in the motorcycle sales figures). One bit of actual data, and that is this: CSC can’t keep bikes in stock. They sell out as soon as they arrive. But CSC delivers real value at a very reasonable price…I don’t know that I ever saw an RX-Anything with conchos and fringe. And CSC motorcycles are definitely not $25K driveway bling. Yeah, the big bike ADV thing is fast approaching its “sell by”date, I think. The fat lady is singing, folks. It’s almost over.
So, given that the ADV milk is drying up, the next big thing will be…
Hell, I don’t know.
What do you think? You guys figure it out and let me know. And if you think you know, leave a comment here. Curious minds want to know.
The milk is us.
When I lived in the Keys old timers would say “You should have seen it in the 1970’s.” Now I tell people “you should have seen it in the 1990’s”
Everyone has their personal time-line and you and I are about over ADV bikes.
You and I, and I suspect most other people as well.
So what’s next?
What’s next? Nothing. Retro will be all that’s left and Retro will be each generation restoring the bike they had or wanted to have when they were younger to reclaim that time in their life that they remember as being their happiest. Now where is a nice DT400 and a rebuilt Big Daddy’s Discotheque…..
I suspect you are right. For me that would be a mid-’60s Triumph Bonneville.
Next for me is to get rid of a few bikes. Keep just the ones I love. I still plan on riding motorcycles a lot but it’s not important for me to own the latest and greatest.
The industry is still interesting to watch and report on. I see a trend towards smaller bikes. The sub 500cc class is where the action is. Kids can afford them and they’re nothing like Old Geezer bikes.
I would like a RD 350 or a H2 750 but those are luxury items.
As you know, I’m down to one (my 650 Enfield). I agree on the sensibility of smaller bikes; I don’t know if that’s the way the industry is moving. The problem as I see it is even if the big dogs move toward toward smaller bikes, the prices are still too high. Witness the Kawi 300 ADV bike…it’s as much as a 650. The reality of it is that for a bigger company with all of the built-in overhead and the corporate requirements for margins not less than X%, it costs as much to build a smaller bike as it does to build a larger bike. Throw in the typical dealer freight and shipping BS and you’re overpriced. I think the current dealership model in the US and probably Europe is a big part of the problem.
What’s next ? Hmmmm, not sure there will be a real “next big thing”. When I was 9 I got a bicycle and could go places . When I was 12 I got 50% ownership in a used Honda 50 , later buying it outright . I could go farther faster than the bicycle. After High School I bought a Honda 350 G , and now I could go out of state. At 19 I spent the profit from my first tobacco crop on a Z1-B 900 Kawasaki , now I could ride across the continent.
In the 80’s I started road racing on Vintage Ducati’s while still doing long distance rides. Along the way I picked up an $1100 KLR with 8000 miles , now 84,000.
I bought a Road King , but , my usual ride group stayed on dual sport bikes , so it only got a little use , until I rode it across the country and sold it. Having a trip interrupted by selling the bike is a shock , so I bought another to ride home. It’s one of those large ADV bikes that’s too costly and tall and heavy for me to take into the rough , but , makes a hella fast tour bike.
Now in the days after the plague I have a pair of sidecars with auto wheels and leading link forks , the next big thing ? Pull the other one.
I think older riders are still the ones driving the market in the US. Most are realizing large, heavy, powerful and expensive bikes don’t make riding more fun. Smaller, less complicated bikes may ultimately be the next “big thing “, but they don’t provide manufacturers the kind of profits they desire. Emerging markets have been buying the smaller, cheaper bikes for a long time, but manufacturers haven’t been keen to push these bikes to more affluent markets because they’ve been making good money pushing larger, more expensive bikes. Now that it is becoming more obvious that the developed markets are losing interest in motorcycles, manufacturers are going after new riders with smaller, cheaper bikes. Unfortunately, their desire for profits means we’re getting higher-priced, tech-laden mid sized bikes like Aprillia 660’s and Triumph Tridents when many older buyers would prefer Enfield Interceptors. It’s not necessarily nostalgia as much as just a desire for a sensibly sized and priced bike. It’s just that most bikes of this description happen to harken back to bikes from the 60’s and 70’s. Maybe manufacturers knew something back then that they’re rediscovering.
Fun for everyone bikes. Small-ish bikes. Practical personality bikes. Pushing that 600 lb slug around is a joy killer. A 150 scooter will do a road trip. A 400 Himalaya will travel what your world consists of. Off road is fantasy for most, or very rare and not like the high flying magazine pictures. Where does one place that large fat cruiser anyway. Everyone envies that small cool bike.
Having owned superbikes to super fat my 150 scooter makes me and others smile.
Good inputs, Dave. Thanks.